Large Language Models

From Passive Metric to Active Signal: The Evolving Role of Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models

JJiaxin ZhangWWendi CuiZZhuohang LiLLifu HuangBBradley MalinCCaiming XiongCChien-Sheng Wu
arXiv ID
2601.15690
Published
January 22, 2026
Authors
7
Hugging Face Likes
4
Comments
2

Abstract

While Large Language Models (LLMs) show remarkable capabilities, their unreliability remains a critical barrier to deployment in high-stakes domains. This survey charts a functional evolution in addressing this challenge: the evolution of uncertainty from a passive diagnostic metric to an active control signal guiding real-time model behavior. We demonstrate how uncertainty is leveraged as an active control signal across three frontiers: in advanced reasoning to optimize computation and trigger self-correction; in autonomous agents to govern metacognitive decisions about tool use and information seeking; and in reinforcement learning to mitigate reward hacking and enable self-improvement via intrinsic rewards. By grounding these advancements in emerging theoretical frameworks like Bayesian methods and Conformal Prediction, we provide a unified perspective on this transformative trend. This survey provides a comprehensive overview, critical analysis, and practical design patterns, arguing that mastering the new trend of uncertainty is essential for building the next generation of scalable, reliable, and trustworthy AI.

Keywords

Large Language Modelsuncertaintyactive control signaladvanced reasoningautonomous agentsreinforcement learningBayesian methodsConformal Predictionreward hackingself-improvementintrinsic rewards

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From Passive Metric to Active Signal: The Evolving Role of Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models | Paperchime